Election 2024: Did Manhattan Beach See 'Bullet Voting'?
Nov 16, 2024 03:46PM ● By Dave Fratello
About 'Bullet Votes,' and How Common They Are in Manhattan Beach
Choosing to use fewer votes than allowed is sometimes called "bullet voting" – also "single shot" or even "plump voting." It's a tactic well-known for voters to try to show stronger support for their favorite candidate, or candidates, and to avoid helping competing candidates.
To learn how common "bullet voting" was in this election compared to previous years, we researched six prior city council elections, going back to March 2013, and compared the results to the counts available so far this year.
Data show that in elections where voters may cast up to two votes for council candidates, the total number of votes in the council race was always between 13.1%-14.5% short of exactly 2 times the number of ballots cast.
Those 13-14% of "missing" votes reflect some combination of voters who cast a single vote when they could have cast two, or others who skipped the city council race entirely.
(It's impossible to know without studying the actual, physical ballots how many "missing votes" were due to "bullet voting" or voters simply ducking the race. We did find one academic study online in which municipal ballots for Paris, France, were examined. There, "bullet voting" was observed at a rate of 11% in similar multi-candidate races.)
In two other elections where local voters could cast three votes for council, in the March 2013 and March 2017 elections, exactly 16.3% of possible votes were "missing" each time – just a bit more than in 2-candidate races.
The number of "missing" votes swelled considerably to 25.4% in November 2020, the first election where city council votes were cast on a general-election ballot, with far higher voter turnout. That was a ballot where voters could cast up to three votes for council.
Current (and now re-elected) city council member Joe Franklin narrowly won the third seat in Nov. 2020, his first successful campaign for a seat, by just 88 votes over Gretel Fournell. There were just over 18,000 "missing" votes in that council election.
(We need to emphasize that our use of the word "missing" does not imply that ballots or votes were set aside, hidden, or "stolen," only that the totals cast for council were fewer than the maximum possible, given the number of people who voted.)
Were 'Bullet Votes' Common This Year?
The 2024 counts are still going on, and we don't yet have the benefit of knowing exactly how many Manhattan Beach voters' ballots have been tallied.Instead, we have local races like Measure RLS and Measure MMB, in addition to city council.
At MB News, we have assumed – based on prior election data – that about 3% of local voters casting ballots skipped the local measures, focusing their time on the presidential contest and perhaps state ballot measures. That leads us to estimate that about 20,718 ballots have been counted so far.
If that assumption proves correct, then there are proportionally more votes for council "missing" than in all of the prior races we studied: About 28%, or nearly 17,700 total based on the latest counts.
The rate of "missing" votes this year appears to be double what we saw in Nov. 2022's city council election, when 2 seats were up. A rate of 28% "missing" would be the highest among all of the elections studied.
Without more data and interviews with actual voters, it's hard to say why so many more voters seem to have withheld votes for council in 2024. It's true that the 2022 race was particularly loud and hard-fought, perhaps engaging more voters in the campaign and leaving them less likely to skip or try "bullet" voting.
There are turnout differences, too. The Nov. 2022 election saw 68% of local voters cast ballots; this year, the total is likely to be in the 80% range. Presidential-year elections always have larger turnout, but surely many of the "extra" voters who come out just once every four years are less motivated by local races. This may help explain why the "missing" vote rate this year is so similar to Nov. 2020's, while higher than 2022.With nearly 17,700 votes "missing" this year (so far), it's the equivalent of almost 5,900 voters completely skipping the city council race. At least a few thousand surely did pass right by that part of the ballot, while others used only one or two of their possible three votes.
City Council Race (Three Seats)
The city council race always showed two candidates placing far above the rest, incumbent Joe Franklin and newcomer Nina Tarnay. At this time, Steve Charelian appears to be taking the third seat.Note: In our chart below, the two different shades on top of each main bar shows the number of votes added to each candidate's tally since the first overnight results.
Measure MMB Still Winning Strongly
A city-sponsored initiative, Measure MMB, has held onto its vote share in the latest counts, with "yes" at 57%.
Measure MMB will increase the sales tax by 1/2 cent to pay for infrastructure and other needs. It needs only 50%-plus-one to pass.
Measure RLS Grows to 2-to-1 Lead
Measure RLS would "repair local schools" by extending current bond assessments, generating approximately $200 million over time. Supporters argued that the measure amounted to a continuation of existing charges, and not a tax increase.
Measure RLS needs a 55% supermajority to pass, but it has been far surpassing that threshold, growing to a 67% "yes" vote from 65% in earlier counts.
State Proposition 2, meanwhile, has built its lead up to 58% "yes," while needing only a simple majority to pass. That measure proposes a $10 billion state bond to be used for school repairs and infrastructure. Measure RLS proponents stated during the campaign that Prop. 2 could bring matching funds to Manhattan Beach in excess of $50 million with the passage of Measure RLS.
Other Races of Local Interest
Outgoing city council member Steve Napolitano appears likely to fall short in his effort to be elected judge of the Superior Court, Office 39. With more than 2.9 million votes tallied countywide, Napolitano had slipped to just 40% support, while his opponent, George A. Turner, Jr., was at 60%.
L.A. County District Attorney George Gascon, whose policies repeatedly drew the ire of Manhattan Beach officials – even a council vote in support of his recall – will be replaced by challenger Nathan Hochman, who continues to lead 60% to 40%.
The city ballot technically had a race for City Treasurer, featuring current treasurer Tim Lilligren as the only candidate. He's now up to 15,402 votes.
How Many Ballots Are Left to Count?
Manhattan Beach has 26,679 registered voters. MB News estimates that the total number of ballots counted so far by L.A. County represents about 78% of all those voters.
The big unknown as to how many ballots remain is what the overall turnout will prove to be for Manhattan Beach for this election. Past presidential-year ballots have seen extremely high turnout among Manhattan Beach voters (another reason to be proud of MB!):
Nov. 2008: 90.7%
Nov. 2012: 84.4%
Nov. 2016: 81.1%
Nov. 2020: 87.5%
Assuming that turnout this year falls between these totals from past years, the total number of ballots outstanding to be counted for Manhattan Beach would be between 900-3,500 at this time.
